The economic meltdown brought on by the coronavirus pandemic has governments deploying historically vast fiscal spending packages to support millions of their citizens and businesses.
This spending is necessary to support economies — officials agree on that much. But the debt incurred over time could mean a deeper crisis and a doubled-down recession for some countries, according to recent reports.
- The debt incurred over time from coronavirus stimulus spending could mean a deeper crisis and default risks for some countries, according to a recent economic reports.
- The current wave of debt accumulation — which started in 2010 — is “the largest, fastest and most broad-based increase” in global borrowing since the 1970s.
- ===
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Southern European countries could be hit first
The EIU report warned that under such unprecedented pressure and with no certainty as to how long the current crisis will last, states’ options for pulling themselves out of debt holes after the crisis subsides are becoming increasingly slim.While austerity has been used to curb high fiscal deficits in the past, this is unlikely to prove viable during any post-crisis recovery, given the level of trauma and economic pain most of the world will have experienced.With no realistic measures in place to prevent sovereign debt crises, a second and potentially deeper blow could hit economies — particularly heavily indebted developed countries like Italy and Spain, threatening contagion to more markets, the EIU warned. Raising fiscal revenue through higher taxes will be unpalatable for some time and may not even be sufficient, the report authors wrote. On top of that, we could see investor appetite for ever more sovereign debt weaken.- =====
===
“Many developed countries may, in the medium term, find themselves on the brink of a debt crisis,” Agathe Demarais, global forecasting director for the EIU, wrote in the report.
“This is compounded by the fact that many of the European countries that are among the worst affected by the epidemic, such as Italy and Spain, already had weak fiscal positions before the coronavirus outbreak.”
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